Monday, December 9, 2024

Syrian Civil War Reignites: Map of Control Amid Rebel Advance (Dec. 6, 2024)

This map shows the situation on December 6, 2024, just before the final collapse of the Bashar al-Assad government in Damascus. Though the cities of Homs and Damascus have reportedly come under rebel control since then, the country is now in such disarray that current control can't be accurately mapped. 

We plan to publish an update for our subscribers within the next few days, clarifying post-Assad control once the dust has begun to settle.

There are newer editions of this map available. To see them, view all Syria updates.

Syrian Civil War map: Territorial control in Syria on December 6, 2024, ten days into the surprise rebel offensive, and just before their advance led to a full collapse of the Assad government (Free Syrian Army rebels, Kurdish YPG, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS / Al-Nusra Front), and others). Includes areas of major known activity for so-called Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL), Turkish/SNA control, joint SDF-Assad control, and US deconfliction zone, plus recent locations of conflict, including Aleppo, Hama, Daraa, Deir ez-Zor, and more. Colorblind accessible.
Base map by Koen Adams of onestopmap.com, with territorial control by Djordje Djukic and Evan Centanni. Area of IS activity is based on 2024 data from ACLED (see footnote for full citation), and reflects a change in methodology from previous editions.
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Timeline by Djordje Djukic

Return to War: Lightning Offensive and Countrywide Shifts

Twelve days ago, Syria's 13-year-old civil war, mostly dormant for the past four years, exploded back onto the scene with a surprise rebel offensive out of the northwest, which quickly managed to seize the country's second largest city, Aleppo. The lead rebel group was the former Al Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), though Turkish-backed rebels from the northern border regions also joined the fray, with the two groups quickly taking over the country's second largest city, Aleppo. 

As hardline HTS-led forces marched rapidly south, two more rebel fronts emerged, with US-backed fighters in the southern desert expanding out of their longtime safe zone, and a reborn opposition in the southwest recapturing the former rebel stronghold of Daraa. Meanwhile, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) moved to consolidate their control in the north and east, and over the next ten days moved into areas west of the Euphrates River - including the major city of Deir ez-Zor - as the Syrian military withdrew.

December 6th - the date illustrated on the map above - saw the Syrian military's last major resistance to the surprise rebel assault. The next two days would be a period of government free fall, with rebels apparently entering the city of Homs and national capital Damascus without much resistance. Meanwhile, authoritarian president Bashar al-Assad fled the country as his military withdrew from both cities and the country's central desert, conceding victory in the central conflict of the country's 13-year civil war.

Assad Has Fallen: What's Next for Control in Syria?

Syria is now in disarray, and many questions remain to be answered. What kind of new government will emerge in Damascus? Will former government loyalists hold onto the country's now-isolated coastal region, a traditional bastion of Assad's supporters and still host to his Russian military allies? Will democracy-minded rebel groups work together with the religious-hardline HTS, turn against it, or go their own way in their own strongholds? 

One thing that does seem certain: Syria's division isn't over yet. Even if a rebel coalition government secures power over the country's whole west and center, much of the north and northeast remain under control of the Kurdish-led SDF. While the SDF and the provisional government of its controlled areas do still consider themselves part of Syria, they'll likely be in no hurry to submit to any rebel-led administration. For one thing, they're determined to guarantee rights for Syria's Kurdish people before any future reintegration - and likely under pressure from its US patrons to continue the fight against the so-called "Islamic State" (IS, formerly ISIS).

But the Kurdish-led forces in the northeast also aren't on good terms with either of the two most powerful rebel factions. With Türkiye's government labeling the Kurdish militias at the core of the SDF's forces as terrorist groups, Turkish-backed rebels are more enemies than friends to the US-backed coalition (despite the US and Türkiye being allied with each other as fellow NATO members). Meanwhile, it probably goes without saying that the pro-democracy, fiercely anti-IS, US-supported SDF will be wary of cooperation with the religious-hardline HTS, who many fear could become the next Taliban.

To follow our further coverage as post-Assad territorial control develops, visit or bookmark our listing of all Syria control map reports.

Note: Syria's flag and full official name are likely to change now that the Assad government has fallen. The details in this box reflect the situation prior to Dec. 8, 2024.

Flag of Syria under the Assad government Country Name:  
• Syria (English)
• Sūriyya/Sūryā (Arabic)
Official Name:  
• Syrian Arab Republic (English)
• al-Jumhūriyyah al-‘Arabīyah  as-Sūriyyah (Arabic)
Capital: Damascus

Note: Red triangles on the map represent towns where rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - formerly known as Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (a.k.a. the Nusra Front) - is thought to be in a dominant position among rebel forces, even if it doesn't exercise exclusive control.

Timeline of Events
The following is a timeline of changes to territorial control and other key events in Syria's Civil War since our previous map update of July 2023. Sources are provided as links within the text.

The timeline first summarizes the most important military events prior to the recent rebel offensive, then covers the offensive and other concurrent events in detail.

In order to achieve a level of detail much higher than that reflected in mainstream news reporting, we have heavily relied on reports from independent conflict tracker Suriyak and political organization the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Despite Suriyak being an open supporter of the Syrian military, and the SOHR being affiliated with the anti-Assad opposition, both sources have long track records of accurate and objective reporting on territorial changes, whether or not the changes are in favor of their side. 

Semi-frozen Conflict: July 2023 to November 2024

August 27-September 12, 2023

Fighting erupted in Deir ez-Zor province between loyalist forces of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and SDF member organization the Deir ez-Zor Military Council (DMC), an Arab-majority militia. The DMC revolted after the arrest of one of its commanders by the SDF leadership, though it was reported that tensions between the two factions ran deeper due to economic grievances. Some other armed Arab men from the area fought alongside the DMC, with different traditional kinship groups tending to take different positions. By August 31, the DMC had managed to seize most of the villages in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor, including As Suwar, as well as large areas in the northern part of the province. However, following the arrival of larger SDF reinforcements, the SDF launched a counterattack on September 1, and by September 7, recaptured almost all of the towns the DMC had seized, re-securing all of the lost territory by September 12. 

As the fighting wound down, the SDF leadership agreed to a general amnesty for DMC fighters, and the DMC would apparently return to acting as part of the SDF in future months. The fighting had left 91 people dead, including 57 DMC fighters, 25 SDF fighters, and nine civilians.

September 25-27, 2023

Another round of clashes took place between the SDF and the DMC, killing 27 people, including 22 DMC fighters, four SDF fighters, and one civilian. During this renewed fighting, the DMC temporarily seized a town opposite the government-held town of Mayadin before it was recaptured by the SDF.

October 5, 2023

A suspected rebel drone strike on a military graduation ceremony in Homs city left 116 people dead, mostly soldiers, but also including 30 civilians.

October 5-9, 2023

A series of Turkish air and ground strikes were conducted against the SDF in northern Syria. Fatalities from the clashes included 40 SDF fighters, eight Turkish soldiers, six civilians, two Syrian government soldiers, and three fighters of the Turkish-backed wing of the Free Syrian Army (TFSA) rebel group - now officially known as the Syrian National Army (SNA)*.

*The Syrian National Army (SNA) rebel group is not to be confused with the official army of the Syrian government, which is known formally as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).

January 29, 2024

Three US soldiers were killed and 34 injured in a drone strike on their base near the Jordan-Syria border. According to the US, the attack took place at a US outpost within Jordan, while Jordan denied this and said it had happened on the Syrian side of the border at the US base in Tanf. The US and UK blamed Iran for supporting the groups behind the strike - an accusation that Iran denied. 

The strike was believed to be related to the Israel-Hamas conflict taking place southwest of Syria, in which Iran-backed groups in several countries have launched attacks against Israel, its allies, and other perceived associates (see our Israel/Palestine map report series for more details, including timelines of related military events both within and beyond the territories claimed by Palestine and Israel).

February 3, 2024

In retaliation for the drone strike that killed three US soldiers, the US conducted a series of airstrikes in Syria and Iraq against more than 85 sites linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reportedly killing around 40 people. In Syria, 29 Iran-linked militiamen were killed, including six Hezbollah members, while in Iraq, 17 militiamen died, as well as some civilians.

August 6-7, 2024

Government-backed fighters attacked villages on the SDF-controlled eastern bank of the Euphrates River, in Deir ez-Zor province. They briefly seized positions in five villages before being pushed back. Both the SDF (likely including the DMC or other Arab units) and anti-SDF Arab forces both claimed credit for repelling the government-aligned offensive.

Ten Days that Upended Syria: November 27 to December 6, 2024

November 27, 2024

Rebel forces led by former Al Qaeda affiliate group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), alongside the SNA, launched a large-scale offensive against government forces in northwestern Syria. In the first 12 hours of the operation, they captured 20 towns and villages plus a military base in the countryside of Aleppo province, west and southwest of Aleppo city, and reached positions between 7 and 10 kilometers from the city itself. On the first day of the offensive, 60 rebels and 37 government fighters were killed.

November 28, 2024

The rebels expanded their offensive, attacking government positions in the Idlib province’s countryside and capturing three villages and a neighborhood of the town of Saraqeb. They also cut off the M5 highway linking Damascus with Aleppo and seized 23 more villages in Aleppo province. The neighborhood in Saraqeb was recaptured by the Syrian military in a counterattack several hours later. The number of dead rose to 129 rebels, 82 government fighters, and 20 civilians.

November 29, 2024

The rebels’ rapid advances continued as they expanded their control to include a total of some 60 towns and villages in Aleppo and Idlib that they hadn’t held prior to the offensive - including Saraqeb - and entered Aleppo city, seizing five districts and spreading out to four others.

November 30, 2024

By this point, most of Aleppo city was under rebel control. The SDF also expanded its control over a few of the city’s neighborhoods and suburbs - including the Shaykh Najjar industrial zone, as well as several villages in the eastern Aleppo countryside - after a general withdrawal of government forces. The SDF also assumed control of Aleppo’s International Airport, as well as the Shiite-majority towns of Nubl and Zahraa north of the city (long a government stronghold amid surrounding control by the Sunni-dominated rebels). However, the SDF soon abandoned the airport, leaving it to HTS, and Nubl and Zahraa would later come under rebel control as well.

In Idlib province to the west, rebels captured the key town of Marat al-Numan and a military airbase, following a withdrawal of government troops from the province. Towards the end of the day, the rebels reportedly had secured full control of Idlib province and then entered the northern countryside of Hama province, capturing more than 15 towns and villages, reportedly including Halfaya, Morek, and Qalaat al-Madiq, before being halted 12 kilometers from provincial capital Hama city. Overall, the rebels were reported to have seized 50 towns and villages during the day. In the evening, the Syrian military began counterattacks in Hama province and managed to regain some ground.

Meanwhile, in eastern Syria’s Deir ez-Zor province, the SDF started shelling a pocket of seven government-held villages on the eastern bank of the Euphrates river, east of provincial capital Deir ez-Zor city. The shelling began following the withdrawal of government-allied Russian military forces from the area.

December 1, 2024

The rebels seized Aleppo’s eastern Shaykh Najjar industrial zone and captured Safira and Khanaser southeast of Aleppo, as well as a military airbase east of the city. They also seized a power plant, a field artillery school, and a military academy on the outskirts of Aleppo following fighting with government troops. In addition, the SNA captured the town of Tell Rifaat and 13 nearby villages from the SDF following clashes, while SDF forces were besieged in other settlements.

Rebel forces also advanced east towards the government-held Jirah airbase on the Aleppo-Raqqah road. As government forces lost Aleppo to the rebels, the Syrian and Russian air forces started a bombing campaign against rebel forces in the city. Meanwhile, large government military reinforcements started arriving in Hama province and were setting up a defence line in the countryside. By this point, the Syrian military had managed to recapture Qalaat al-Madiq and 10 other settlements in Hama province since beginning their counterattacks, reaching the outskirts of Morek and slowing the rebel advance.

December 2, 2024

After regrouping, the rebels launched a new assault and captured 49 towns and villages in northern and eastern Hama, but were repelled from Qalaat al-Madiq once again. A subsequent government counterattack recaptured six villages. Still, overall, the Syrian military managed to prevent the rebels from capturing strategic points in the northern countryside of Hama.

December 3, 2024

The rebels were reported to have captured around ten more towns and villages in northern Hama, including Halfaya, which had initially been reported seized by the rebels three days earlier, as they were advancing closer to the provincial capital. They were said to be attempting to cut off the two main roads to Hama city and besiege it. However, government forces continued to hold the main line of defense. Later in the day, they attacked a strategic mountain overlooking the city. 

Elsewhere, fighting erupted in Khanaser, southeast of Aleppo, as government forces were attempting to regain control there and reach Safira to relieve allies who were reportedly besieged in the latter town. Subsequently, the government forces managed to recapture Khanaser and advance to Safira, relieving their surrounded comrades, before withdrawing once again from both towns. Meanwhile, Kurdish-dominated forces affiliated with the SDF were reported to still be in control of the northern Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh neighborhoods of Aleppo city. By this point, 574 people had been confirmed killed since the start of the rebel offensive, including 291 rebels, 182 pro-government fighters, 98 civilians, and three SDF fighters.

Southeast of Al-Bab, the SNA secured a large area, reaching the former pro-government trench line that had been separating them from SDF territory, as the major reservoir to the east. This left them close to the Jirah airbase, which had come under SDF control amid government withdrawals.

In eastern Syria, fighting again erupted in the area of the government-held pocket of seven villages east of Deir ez-Zor, while aircraft from the US-led coalition backing the SDF conducted intensive airstrikes on positions of Iran-backed militias in the region. They also attacked Deir ez-Zor’s military airport. However, by the end of the day, the SDF-affiliated DMC, supported by coalition aircraft, had failed to break through the government’s first line of defense. Overall, 16 people were killed in the clashes, including 11 pro-government fighters, three SDF fighters, and two civilians.

December 4, 2024

In a counterattack, government forces recaptured two settlements north of Hama, holding the rebels back some 10 kilometers from the city, while the rebels also failed to seize the mountain overlooking Hama. The Syrian military also seized three villages overlooking the Hama-Khanaser highway and secured the northeastern entrance to Hama city. In addition, despite losing another village in the western countryside of Hama, government troops managed to repel a rebel attempt to advance on villages in the area inhabited mostly by Alawites, the religious minority that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad was a member of. 

However, in the evening, the rebels cut off both the Hama-Raqqah road and the Hama-Aleppo road as they captured three more villages. They also seized a village three kilometers northwest of Hama, thus surrounding the city on three sides. Still, another rebel assault on the strategic mountain overlooking Hama was repelled as government forces re-secured both it and the entrances to the city, with the rebel positions a few kilometers away. Overall, the rebels had seized 10 new villages in Hama province during the day. Amid these events, Lebanon’s Hezbollah paramilitary group, as well as pro-Iran Shiite militias from Iraq, sent fighters to Syria to reinforce government forces.

North of Aleppo, the SNA rebel coalition had established firm control over Tell Rifaat and 28 nearby settlements that had previously been under Kurdish-led SDF control. It was reported that 12 SNA fighters had died during fighting with the SDF before the Kurdish-led forces withdrew.

December 5, 2024

The next day, HTS-led rebels were still not able to enter Hama city, while government forces regained a town in the eastern countryside of Hama. This forced the rebels to send reinforcements, leading to heavy fighting in Hama’s suburbs that lasted for hours and resulted in the rebels finally managing to enter the northeastern part of the city. More heavy fighting ensued in Hama itself, with the rebels eventually managing to capture the city. This forced the military to withdraw from Salamiya, southeast of Hama, as well as another major town north of Homs and two mines in the eastern Homs countryside. Subsequently, the rebels took control of Salamiya without resistance and seized the mountain overlooking Hama. A large area east of Hama was also taken.

Meanwhile, government forces withdrew from the seven villages they had been holding on the eastern bank of the Euphrates River, east of the Deir ez-Zor city, amid the arrival of major SDF reinforcements. The SDF also took control of positions in the Raqqah countryside that had been abandoned by government troops, in what was said to be an effort to prevent any possible attacks by so-called Islamic State (IS) forces known to operate in the central desert.

December 6, 2024

Rebel forces captured Rastan at the northern entrance to Homs province, as well as the town that had been abandoned by government forces north of Homs a day earlier, plus a series of nearby villages. They also seized a town northwest of Homs city and reached the city’s outskirts. Meanwhile, government troops almost completely withdrew from Palmyra, in the desert of eastern Homs province, as the US-backed rebels stationed in the Tanf “deconfliction zone” launched an offensive towards the town, clashing with government forces south of it. The rebels also seized Ithriya, on the Hama-Raqqah road.

Elsewhere, rebel forces seized the border crossing between Syria and Jordan, as well as a number of positions in Daraa province, amid a general government withdrawal (the province had been a major rebel stronghold earlier in the war). They also seized parts of Nawa town following an attack on government positions. By the end of the day, rebels were in control of more than 90 percent of Daraa province following heavy fighting, including provincial capital Daraa city and dozens of towns. In addition, the rebels also captured the provincial capital Suwayda.

Meanwhile, government forces started withdrawing from Deir ez-Zor city, Mayadin, and Abu Kamal. The SDF subsequently entered Deir ez-Zor and took control of the city. They also seized Resafa and Maadan towns on the southern bank of the Euphrates northwest of Deir ez-Zor, further extending their control over supply lines to Deir ez-Zor.

Further coverage of Syria's civil war, including the capture of Homs and Damascus and the fall of Assad, will be upcoming in future installments of our Syria control map report series.



Graphic of the Syrian flag is in the public domain (source). Area of IS activity based on data from ACLED. Full citation: Raleigh, Clionadh, Andrew Linke, Håvard Hegre and Joakim Karlsen. (2010). “Introducing ACLED - Armed Conflict Location and Event Data.” Journal of Peace Research 47(5) 651-660. https://www.acleddata.com/